NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the August 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations decreased slightly at the medium-term horizon and remained unchanged at the short- and longer-term horizons. Gas price growth expectations increased again in August. Labor market expectations were mixed with unemployment and job finding expectations deteriorating while job loss and quit expectations improved somewhat. Expectations of an increase in unemployment reached the highest level since April 2020. The survey was fielded from August 3 through August 31, 2026.
The main findings from the August 2026 Survey are:
Inflation
- Median inflation expectations at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons were unchanged at 3.6% and 3.0%, while they decreased at the three-year-ahead horizon by 0.1 percentage point to 3.2%. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles of inflation expectations) decreased at the one-year-ahead horizon and increased at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons.
- Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—increased at the one- and five-year horizons and decreased at three-year horizon.
- Median home price growth expectations decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0%, just below its 12-month trailing average of 3.1%. The decrease was driven by those living in the Northeast.
- Among commodities, median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 1.7 percentage points to 4.6% for gas, by 0.3 percentage point to 5.3% for food, and by 0.2 percentage point to 9.1% for medical care. Median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.3 percentage point to 6.1% for the cost of college education and by 0.7 percentage point to 6.6% for rent.
Labor Market
- Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% in August. The series remains above its 12-month trailing average of 2.6%.
- Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 1.6 percentage points to 44.4%, its highest reading since April 2020. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 13.8%, its lowest reading since February 2026. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months increased by 0.9 percentage point to 19.5%, above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 18.4%. The decrease in job loss and increase in quit expectations were both driven by those with at most a high school degree and those with annual household incomes under $100,000.
- The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost decreased by 0.8 percentage point to 45.4%, just below the series 12-month trailing average of 45.5%.
Household Finance
- The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.0% in August. The series has been moving in a narrow range between 2.8% and 3.0% since June 2025.
- Median one-year-ahead household spending growth expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 5.2%, above its 12-month trailing average of 5.0%.
- Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago declined, with the net share of households reporting it is harder to get credit increasing. Expectations for future credit availability also deteriorated, with a larger share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead and a smaller share expecting it will be easier.
- The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.2 percentage points to 13.2%, just above its 12-month trailing average of 12.7%.
- The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level increased by 0.5 percentage point to 3.5%, its highest reading since December 2025.
- Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 0.6 percentage point to 9.7%, remaining above its 12-month trailing average of 8.8%.
- The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on savings accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 28.8%.
- Perceptions and expectations about households’ financial situations both deteriorated with larger shares of households reporting a worse financial situation compared to a year ago and expecting a worse financial situation a year from now, and smaller shares of households reporting or expecting a better financial situation.
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 40.9%.
About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)
The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers’ outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy.
The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, this panel allows us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time. For further information on the SCE, please refer to an overview of the survey methodology here, the FAQs, the interactive chart guide, and the survey questionnaire.
